Bets
1
1W · 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
1/1
ROI
+112.00%
profit / wager
P&L
+3.74u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
0.10
Ks · n=1
Bias
-0.10
neutral
Volatility
Moderate spread
α=0.0137 · 48 starts
Recent form · Last 1 start
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
MAE
0.10
P&L
+3.74u
UNDER1 bet
Record
1W-0L
Win Rate
100%
P&L
+3.74u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.9, α=0.014) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 20% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8/26 | CIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +112 | 17.7% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +3.74u | BetRivers |