Walker Buehler
avg tier · 4.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.65
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.12
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.94
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.69
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.84
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0011
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0011
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 3.29 | 6 | 2.71 |
| 9/15/26 | 3.35 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 9/9/26 | 4.18 | 4 | 0.18 |
| 9/4/26 | 4.07 | 6 | 1.93 |
| 8/29/26 | 4.27 | 3 | 1.27 |
| 8/11/26 | 3.97 | 5 | 1.03 |
| 8/6/26 | 4.28 | 3 | 1.28 |
| 8/1/26 | 4.29 | 1 | 3.29 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.19 | 7 | 2.81 |
| 7/21/26 | 3.77 | 3 | 0.77 |
| 7/11/26 | 4.35 | 1 | 3.35 |
| 7/6/26 | 4.26 | 4 | 0.26 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.40 | 6 | 1.60 |
| 6/26/26 | 3.73 | 5 | 1.27 |
| 6/20/26 | 4.33 | 7 | 2.67 |
| 6/14/26 | 3.67 | 5 | 1.33 |
| 6/8/26 | 4.16 | 4 | 0.16 |
| 6/3/26 | 3.65 | 6 | 2.35 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.23 | 2 | 2.23 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.24 | 4 | 0.24 |