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Bets
10
3W · 7L
Win Rate
30.0%
46.0% break-even (+117)
ROI
-22.96%
profit / wager
P&L
-3.87u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.69
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
-0.03
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0011 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-7L
Win Rate
30%
+117 avg
MAE
2.30▲ 0.87
P&L
-3.87u
UNDER2 bets
Record
1W-1L
Win Rate
50%
-115 avg
P&L
+1.58u
OVER8 bets
Record
2W-6L
Win Rate
25%
+126 avg
P&L
-5.45u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.2, α=0.001) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
5 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/6/26 | @ARI | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -275 | 7.5% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +1.02u | BetMGM |
| 7/1/26 | @CHC | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -140 | 5.0% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 6 | WIN | +0.86u | BetMGM |
| 6/8/26 | CIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +112 | 17.7% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +3.74u | BetRivers |
| 8/6/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -120 | 7.9% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -1.73u | BetMGM |
| 8/6/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +186 | 7.5% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -1.16u | DraftKings |
| 8/6/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +420 | 6.3% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -0.78u | Bovada |
| 7/11/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -130 | 7.1% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -1.64u | Fanatics |
| 7/11/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +175 | 7.5% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -1.17u | BetRivers |
| 7/11/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +400 | 6.7% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -0.84u | FanDuel |
| 6/26/26 | LAD | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -148 | 8.7% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -2.16u | BetRivers |