Bets
10
2W · 3L
Win Rate
40.0%
2/5
ROI
+1.76%
profit / wager
P&L
+0.20u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
0.35
Ks · n=5
Bias
+0.35
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 47 starts
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
2W-3L
Win Rate
40%
MAE
0.35
P&L
+0.20u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER10 bets
Record
2W-3L
Win Rate
40%
P&L
+0.20u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.7, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
1 start · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/8/26 | @CLE | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -207 | 11.6% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.72u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @CLE | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +113 | 15.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +3.35u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +251 | 16.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -2.29u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +557 | 13.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.62u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @CLE | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1160 | 8.9% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.97u | DraftKings |
| 6/6/26 | BOS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -166 | 9.8% | 6.0 | 3–9 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/6/26 | BOS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +132 | 12.7% | 6.0 | 3–9 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/6/26 | BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +276 | 12.6% | 6.0 | 3–9 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/6/26 | BOS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +592 | 10.7% | 6.0 | 3–9 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 6/6/26 | BOS | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1220 | 7.1% | 6.0 | 3–9 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |