Will Warren
good tier · 4.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
2.38
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.20
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.89
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.79
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.55
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 5.15 | 0 | 5.15 |
| 9/14/26 | 5.11 | 6 | 0.89 |
| 9/9/26 | 4.93 | 0 | 4.93 |
| 8/30/26 | 4.94 | 7 | 2.06 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.94 | 4 | 0.94 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.94 | 3 | 1.94 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.07 | 5 | 0.93 |
| 7/31/26 | 4.73 | 7 | 2.27 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.79 | 5 | 0.21 |
| 7/12/26 | 4.39 | 2 | 2.39 |
| 7/7/26 | 4.61 | 3 | 1.61 |
| 7/1/26 | 5.85 | 7 | 1.15 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.05 | 0 | 5.05 |
| 6/20/26 | 4.75 | 8 | 3.25 |
| 6/14/26 | 4.84 | 1 | 3.84 |
| 6/8/26 | 4.55 | 5 | 0.45 |
| 6/6/26 | 5.99 | 1 | 4.99 |
| 5/31/26 | 5.68 | 5 | 0.68 |
| 5/25/26 | 5.43 | 3 | 2.43 |