Yoshinobu Yamamoto
elite tier · 6.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
1.88
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.03
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.28
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.00
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.14
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0006
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0005
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 6.22 | 4 | 2.22 |
| 9/15/26 | 6.30 | 7 | 0.70 |
| 9/9/26 | 6.31 | 10 | 3.69 |
| 9/2/26 | 6.29 | 8 | 1.71 |
| 8/27/26 | 6.34 | 8 | 1.66 |
| 8/8/26 | 6.04 | 6 | 0.04 |
| 8/1/26 | 6.37 | 3 | 3.37 |
| 7/25/26 | 6.28 | 5 | 1.28 |
| 7/19/26 | 6.30 | 7 | 0.70 |
| 7/11/26 | 6.31 | 6 | 0.31 |
| 7/4/26 | 6.32 | 10 | 3.68 |
| 6/27/26 | 5.97 | 4 | 1.97 |
| 6/20/26 | 6.87 | 6 | 0.87 |
| 6/13/26 | 7.01 | 7 | 0.01 |
| 6/6/26 | 6.68 | 4 | 2.68 |
| 5/31/26 | 6.42 | 10 | 3.58 |
| 5/24/26 | 6.44 | 3 | 3.44 |