Zac Gallen
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
10
MAE
1.93
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.52
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.36
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.18
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.67
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0185
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0254
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/9/26 | 3.74 | 1 | 2.74 |
| 7/7/26 | 4.76 | 5 | 0.24 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.73 | 4 | 0.73 |
| 6/26/26 | 4.59 | 0 | 4.59 |
| 6/20/26 | 4.62 | 2 | 2.62 |
| 6/14/26 | 4.10 | 4 | 0.10 |
| 6/9/26 | 3.99 | 3 | 0.99 |
| 6/3/26 | 4.22 | 1 | 3.22 |
| 5/29/26 | 4.26 | 2 | 2.26 |
| 5/23/26 | 4.21 | 6 | 1.79 |