Zack Littell
scrub tier · 3.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
11
MAE
1.47
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.03
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.83
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.96
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.18
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/26 | 3.24 | 2 | 1.24 |
| 7/29/26 | 2.81 | 2 | 0.81 |
| 7/18/26 | 3.02 | 4 | 0.98 |
| 6/28/26 | 3.84 | 3 | 0.84 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.09 | 5 | 0.91 |
| 6/17/26 | 3.04 | 2 | 1.04 |
| 6/12/26 | 3.82 | 0 | 3.82 |
| 6/6/26 | 3.26 | 4 | 0.74 |
| 5/31/26 | 3.26 | 5 | 1.74 |
| 5/25/26 | 3.44 | 7 | 3.56 |
| 5/20/26 | 3.46 | 3 | 0.46 |