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Bets
16
5W · 8L
Win Rate
38.5%
49.1% break-even (+104)
ROI
-16.53%
profit / wager
P&L
-7.68u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.62
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-2.24
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-2L
Win Rate
50%▲ 33pp
+101 avg
MAE
4.15▲ 2.41
P&L
+3.51u▲ 18.25u
UNDER16 bets
Record
5W-8L
Win Rate
38%
+104 avg
P&L
-7.68u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.5, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
11 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27/26 | @MIA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +145 | 34.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +8.49u | BetMGM |
| 7/27/26 | @MIA | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -133 | 20.5% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.60u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/26/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +103 | 13.7% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.77u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/9/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +103 | 20.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +4.08u | DraftKings |
| 5/29/26 | @LAD | UNDER | 4.5 | ALT | +245 | 5.3% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +1.83u | BetRivers |
| 7/21/26 | LAD | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +117 | 20.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -3.70u | BetRivers |
| 7/12/26 | @DET | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -123 | 21.8% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -4.87u | DraftKings |
| 7/7/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -124 | 11.8% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 14 | LOSS | -2.64u | DraftKings |
| 7/1/26 | PIT | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +141 | 22.5% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -3.85u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/1/26 | PIT | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -140 | 19.2% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -4.61u | DraftKings |
| 6/21/26 | NYM | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +110 | 21.3% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -4.07u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/15/26 | MIA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -134 | 10.0% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -2.34u | FanDuel |
| 6/4/26 | SD | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -106 | 11.5% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 8 | LOSS | -2.37u | FanDuel |
| 8/7/26 | TOR | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +124 | 15.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | — | — | — | FanDuel |
| 8/7/26 | TOR | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -152 | 28.7% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | — | — | BetRivers |
| 8/2/26 | @BAL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -103 | 28.8% | 5.7 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |