Zack Wheeler
elite tier · 7.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
21
MAE
2.40
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.96
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.06
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.72
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.25
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 5.71 | 11 | 5.29 |
| 9/16/26 | 5.68 | 5 | 0.68 |
| 9/10/26 | 5.38 | 9 | 3.62 |
| 9/5/26 | 5.48 | 9 | 3.52 |
| 8/30/26 | 5.53 | 6 | 0.47 |
| 8/24/26 | 5.62 | 4 | 1.62 |
| 8/18/26 | 5.49 | 7 | 1.51 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.75 | 5 | 0.25 |
| 8/7/26 | 4.04 | 6 | 1.96 |
| 7/27/26 | 5.09 | 6 | 0.91 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.54 | 9 | 4.46 |
| 7/12/26 | 6.28 | 10 | 3.72 |
| 7/7/26 | 6.53 | 14 | 7.47 |
| 7/1/26 | 5.81 | 10 | 4.19 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.77 | 5 | 0.77 |
| 6/21/26 | 5.50 | 7 | 1.50 |
| 6/15/26 | 5.14 | 9 | 3.86 |
| 6/9/26 | 4.56 | 5 | 0.44 |
| 6/4/26 | 5.85 | 8 | 2.15 |
| 5/29/26 | 5.54 | 4 | 1.54 |
| 5/23/26 | 5.56 | 6 | 0.44 |