Zebby Matthews
good tier · 5.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.92
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.03
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.37
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.32
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.24
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
31
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/21/26 | 4.81 | 9 | 4.19 |
| 9/16/26 | 5.42 | 8 | 2.58 |
| 9/9/26 | 5.44 | 2 | 3.44 |
| 9/4/26 | 5.07 | 4 | 1.07 |
| 8/30/26 | 5.34 | 5 | 0.34 |
| 8/24/26 | 4.57 | 7 | 2.43 |
| 8/18/26 | 5.26 | 4 | 1.26 |
| 8/12/26 | 5.52 | 4 | 1.52 |
| 8/7/26 | 4.94 | 4 | 0.94 |
| 7/31/26 | 4.95 | 10 | 5.05 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.03 | 1 | 4.03 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.67 | 4 | 0.67 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.06 | 3 | 2.06 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.42 | 5 | 0.42 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.17 | 7 | 1.83 |
| 6/22/26 | 4.56 | 5 | 0.44 |
| 6/16/26 | 3.92 | 4 | 0.08 |
| 6/11/26 | 4.89 | 4 | 0.89 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.80 | 2 | 2.80 |
| 5/31/26 | 4.66 | 7 | 2.34 |