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Bets
19
6W · 11L
Win Rate
35.3%
42.0% break-even (+138)
ROI
-27.69%
profit / wager
P&L
-7.13u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.87
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
+0.10
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0004 · 31 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-9L
Win Rate
25%▼ 35pp
+142 avg
MAE
2.45▲ 1.24
P&L
-9.74u▼ 12.36u
UNDER2 bets
Record
2W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-120 avg
P&L
+3.01u
OVER17 bets
Record
4W-11L
Win Rate
27%
+148 avg
P&L
-10.14u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.0, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 24% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
6 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/10/26 | LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -125 | 5.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +0.94u | BetMGM |
| 7/4/26 | @NYY | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -122 | 5.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.04u | FanDuel |
| 7/4/26 | @NYY | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -275 | 6.4% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +0.87u | Fanatics |
| 6/22/26 | LAD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -220 | 6.7% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +0.97u | Fanatics |
| 6/22/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +104 | 8.5% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.73u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/16/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -115 | 11.0% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +2.06u | BetMGM |
| 7/24/26 | ATH | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -175 | 11.0% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -3.03u | BetMGM |
| 7/24/26 | ATH | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 12.3% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -2.22u | BetRivers |
| 7/24/26 | ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +255 | 10.5% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.47u | FanDuel |
| 7/24/26 | ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +560 | 8.5% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -1.01u | FanDuel |
| 7/19/26 | @CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -107 | 5.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.17u | BetRivers |
| 7/19/26 | @CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +205 | 6.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.96u | BetRivers |
| 7/19/26 | @CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +450 | 6.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.73u | BetRivers |
| 7/4/26 | @NYY | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +172 | 5.9% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.93u | FanDuel |
| 7/4/26 | @NYY | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +370 | 8.4% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.07u | FanDuel |
| 6/22/26 | LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +225 | 8.4% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.21u | Bovada |
| 6/22/26 | LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +525 | 7.9% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.94u | Bovada |
| 8/7/26 | @MIL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +240 | 7.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 8/7/26 | @MIL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +525 | 6.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | — | — | — | Bovada |